Trade Disruptions: December 2021
COVID-19 has had two major effects on global trade.
Firstly, it has confined the world's population to their homes, leading to a huge increase in online buying from around the world. Government stimulus has boosted people's ability to buy more online as other pastimes and expenses such as travel and entertainment have been curtailed.
Secondly, it has also forced the closure of factories, constrained labour and put more pressure on how goods are moved domestically and internationally.
The combination of these factors has created the perfect storm for major disruption to supply chains, which we expect to continue well into 2022.
Our economics and international trade teams have created this report to help business and industry better understand these changes and the drivers behind them. We also give our forecasted view of the potential resolution of these challenges. In doing so, we hope to help business and industry plan, steer into challenges and weather the storm.
Contact us
Nick Tuffley
ASB Chief Economist
Since starting out in 1997 as an economist, it's fair to say Nick has seen a few hair-raising moments over the years, including the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis.
One of Nick's strengths is his ability to communicate complex ideas in a readily understandable and entertaining way. He thrives on helping people understand the economic environment to help enrich the quality of their business or personal life. He’s proud to lead a team that has won two Forecast Accuracy Awards from Consensus Economics, and has a strong track record with their Official Cash Rate and dairy price forecasts.
Nick grew up in Christchurch and graduated with a Master of Commerce degree from the University of Canterbury. He learned his economic ropes at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand before a long stint as a Senior Economist at Westpac, and joined ASB as Chief Economist in 2007.
- Email: Nick
Mark Smith
Senior Economist
Mark joined ASB in 2017, with over 20 years of public and private sector experience working as an economist in New Zealand and the UK.
His resume includes lengthy stints at ANZ and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and he has also worked at the Bank of England, HM Treasury and the New Zealand Transport Agency. Mark's areas of specialisation include interest rate strategy, macro-economic analysis and urban economics.
Born and bred in the Waikato, Mark studied at Waikato University where he graduated with a Master of Social Sciences, majoring in Economics.
Mark's key strengths are the ability to use his extensive experience, inquisitive nature, analytical ability, creativity and pragmatism to dig a little deeper and to deliver common sense solutions to tackle complex problems.
When not at work Mark likes to travel, keep fit and spend time with his friends and family.
- Email: Mark
Yen Nguyen
Economist
Yen Nguyen joined ASB Bank in June 2024, bringing over 10 years of experience as a policy analyst in the Vietnamese government. Her expertise lies in macroeconomic and policy analysis, with a strong focus on economic strategy and regulatory frameworks.
Yen grew up in Hanoi, Vietnam and holds a Master’s Degree in International Studies from Korea University (Seoul) and a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Auckland. Her current focus is on New Zealand’s housing market and regional development, delivering clear, practical insights to help New Zealanders understand market trends, and the economic factors influencing their communities.
Yen is passionate about applying her skills to address real-world economic challenges and supporting sustainable development.
- Email: Yen
