Market Commentary
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Monthly Wrap Up
2024 was one for the record books. It was the second year in a row that the United States S&P 500 share market gained more than 20%, the first time this has happened since 1998. It rang in a new president for the United States. Central banks all around the world, including our own, cut interest rates. And there was significant, almost unprecedented, divergence in markets and stock prices between the haves; the AI focussed stocks, and the have nots; pretty much everything else.
As you are enjoying a relaxing start to your year it's a good time to ponder what 2025 might hold. There will be a lot of predictions shared in newspapers and in the media. Spoiler alert: the more precise those predictions are, the more wrong they are likely to be. Investment success in 2025 will come from ensuring portfolios are well positioned for the broader economic themes that are likely to play out, and through old fashioned investment discipline; not chasing investment fashion, adding to your investments if possible, having patience and taking a genuine long-term approach. Read more in the December Wrap Up.
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Quarterly Economic Forecasts
- 2024 has been a long year, filled with twists and turns over the interest rate outlook, the US election, and finally closing with some early signs that things are on the mend
- Wholesale interest rates started off the year on the way up, on speculation that the RBNZ would lift the OCR
- The RBNZ then reinforced in May that interest rates were unlikely to come down until well into 2025. Inflation pressures suddenly crumbled, and the RBNZ ended up cutting the OCR by 125bp before the end of 2024
Read more in our latest Quarterly Economic Forecasts report.
To read more from our ASB experts, visit Blog: Your Money and our Quarterly Economic Forecasts.
ASB Investment Podcast
Episode 74: Will the RBNZ pump the brakes or hit the gas on 19th Feb?
In the first episode of 2025, host Nigel Grant is joined by podcast favourite Chris Tennent-Brown (Senior Economist, ASB) to discuss market performance in January and to give his thoughts as we look ahead to the year's first OCR announcement.
Episode 73: Year in Review - 2024
In the final episode of the year, Nigel Grant is joined by John Smith (Head of Asset Management, ASB) and David Griffith (Head of Multi Asset Solutions, BlackRock) for a look back on the year that was. They discuss whether global investment themes played out as predicted, canvas the outstanding performers of the year and look ahead to what investors might expect in 2025.
Episode 72: Economist Kim Mundy talks economies, the OCR, and more
Kim Mundy (Senior Economist, ASB) joins host Nigel Grant to discuss both local and global economies, and what we might expect from the final OCR announcement of 2024. They touch on things you should keep in mind as an investor or business owner, and talk about a new way for you to contribute to your investments with ASB.
To hear more from the ASB Investment Podcast, listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
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